“There’s no question, the tax credit has had a significant impact on this market,” said RE/MAX CEO Margaret Kelly. “No one can predict the future, and we may still see a slight pull back, but for right now it appears that housing is holding its own, hopefully on the road to a sustainable recovery.”

Transactions – Year-Over-Year Change
Buyers trying to make the closing deadline for the tax credit may have pushed sales higher for June with a 7.2% rise from May in addition to the 5.6% gain over last year. Sales were especially strong in the Northeast—Boston and Hartford saw 23% more sales than last year, Providence was up 21% and Philadelphia was higher by 27%. An equal number of metro areas, 27, had increases and decreases in closed transactions year over year.

Median Sales Price – Year-Over-Year Change
Responding to demand, home prices appear to be stabilizing and slowly inching higher. In the survey’s 54 metro areas, the year-over-year change in median sales price was 3.5%, with 27 metros headed up, 25 lower and 2 unchanged. The weighted average of all median sales prices for June was $211, 530.

California experienced the most dramatic increase in prices—median prices in San Francisco rose almost 18% higher than June 2009 levels, Los Angeles prices were 10% higher and San Diego prices were 9% above the same time last year.

Days on Market – Average of 54 Metro Areas
Besides price, most home owners are concerned about how long it will take to sell their home. For the homes that sold in the survey’s 54 metro areas, the average number of days it took from listing to signed contract was 81, slightly lower than the 83 day average in May and the 89 day average in June 2009.

Months Supply of Inventory – Average of 54 Metro Areas
The inventory of homes on the market in June rose slightly from May, up only 1.2%, but down 5.8% from June 2009. In the survey’s 54 cities, the average months supply of Inventory was 8.5 months, which remains unchanged from May. This means that at the current rate of sales, the average metro would eliminate its inventory of homes for sale in eight and a half months. However, a six month supply is considered a market balanced equally between buyers and sellers.

From RIS Media

Valerie Fitzgerald specializes in luxury residential real estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, Santa Monica and Malibu. Valerie has more than 20 years of real estate experience and is known for her solid reputation in the West Los Angeles brokerage community. She’s also the author of the book published by Simon and Schuster Heart and Sold: How to Survive and Build a Recession-Proof Business.

Search Luxury Homes in Los Angeles at Valerie Fitzgerald Real Estate Listings or contact Valerie Fitzgerald at 310-285-7515.

“Home buyer tax credits clearly did their job and got people back into the marketplace,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, who also served as moderator of the webinar.

With the expiration of the tax credits in April, Crowe said the housing momentum is being carried forward by low interest rates, pent up household formations, stabilizing prices and budding employment growth.

However, many factors continue to drag on housing at this time–including the critical shortage of credit for new and existing projects, competition from short sales and foreclosures and regional economic disparities.

The availability of acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) financing remains a major concern as the industry moves forward, Crowe said. “Builders still tell us that credit is extremely tight. Banks are saying not so much. That gap is an indication that something is broken, at least when it comes to residential construction.”

NAHB is forecasting 552,000 single-family starts in 2010, up 25% from last year’s 445,000 level, which was the lowest annual output since 1959 when the government began collecting this data.

Suffering from an acute shortage of available financing and a significant shadow inventory of homes lost to foreclosure that are competing against normal inventory, Crowe said that multifamily housing starts are expected to lose further ground this year, falling 18% to 93,000 units, before rebounding to 150,000 units in 2011.

Crowe anticipates that nationwide home prices will remain flat this year and post a modest increase in 2011 and that mortgage interest rates will continue to stay low, barely breaking 6% by the end of this year, and not rising much above that level through 2011.

The road back to normal levels of residential construction will be longer for some states than others. By the end of 2011, the top 20% of the states will see their production levels back to normal. Those states include Texas, Oklahoma, Montana, Wyoming, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas and Kansas. The previous boom markets in California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada, along with the Great Lake states of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and Wisconsin that were hit by deep cuts in auto production and manufacturing, will be the last ones to recover.

Housing Demand Reflects Job Growth
Like his co-panelists, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said that housing will improve as the job market does. He forecast that the economy will average monthly job gains of 125,000 this year, 250,000 in 2011 and 300,000 in 2012.

Mirroring anticipated employment growth, Zandi expects GDP to rise 3% this year, approximately 4% in 2011 and closer to 5% in 2012.

The key factor driving housing demand is jobs, said Zandi. “We’re not going to get home sales unless we have jobs. Here the prospect is good. Business balance sheets are in good shape and improving rapidly. These are pre-conditions for better job growth and we should see the job market steadily gain traction.”

Zandi forecast that overall housing starts will total 700,000 units this year, close to 1 million in 2011 and about 1.7 million by 2012, which he describes as close to trend and consistent with demographics in a normal functioning economy.

Driven largely by the high foreclosure rate, Zandi expects that home prices will continue to fall modestly in 2010, down about 5% on a national average. He calculates that the difference between supply and demand is approximately 750,000 units annually, and it will require until the end of 2011 to work off this extra inventory.

“The good news,” he said, is “as the job market improves, so will household formations and demand. So I anticipate we will work off the excess inventory more quickly than the two-year period.”

He added that most of the housing surplus is regionally concentrated in Florida, around Atlanta, along the South Carolina coast, in Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson and in the central valley of California.

Consumers Fuel Recovery
Taking the most bullish approach to the ongoing recovery, Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, forecast that GDP will rise 3.7% this year and that housing starts will total 750,000, well above the Blue Chip Economic Indicators consensus of 690,000.

“Personal consumption expenditures are making a very solid recovery,” said Varvares. “Residential investment is going from a drag to a contributor. The difference between our forecast and the consensus is the strength in personal consumption and housing.”

Although the huge number of foreclosures on the market are accounting for about 300,000 to 400,000 fewer starts than there otherwise would be, Varvares said the fundamentals still point to a solid trajectory for housing.

“With prices stabilizing, demand is picking up and we expect builders to respond. By the end of 2011, we expect about 1.2 million housing starts. This suggests we can have recovery in starts this strong while simultaneously working down excess housing inventory.”

The panelists were in unanimous agreement on a number of areas–the Federal Reserve will likely continue to keep interest rates near rock bottom levels at least through the end of the year; the chance of a double dip recession is extremely slim; and policymakers will need to take action within the next two years to increase revenues and cut spending to rein in the burgeoning structural deficit.

For more information, visit www.nahb.org.

Valerie Fitzgerald specializes in luxury residential real estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, Santa Monica and Malibu. Valerie has more than 20 years of real estate experience and is known for her solid reputation in the West Los Angeles brokerage community. She’s also the author of the book published by Simon and Schuster Heart and Sold: How to Survive and Build a Recession-Proof Business.

Search Luxury Homes in Los Angeles at Valerie Fitzgerald Real Estate Listings

“While some of the starts activity noted in the report reflected homes for which buyers had just signed a contract at the tail-end of the tax credit program, the rest was probably tied to builders replenishing their inventories in preparation for the post-tax credit era,” said Bob Jones, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. “That said, builders are maintaining a cautious attitude with regard to new building as the economy and housing markets slowly recover.”

Search Los Angeles Luxury Homes at Valerie Fitzgerald Real Estate Listings

“The government’s latest numbers indicate that production of new single-family homes got a substantial boost in April as the tax credit program wrapped up and builders worked to resupply their depleted inventories,” agreed NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “As our latest surveys have indicated, builders are anticipating that factors such as low mortgage rates, attractive prices and the recovering employment market will replace the tax credit as incentives to buy. Meanwhile, the drop-off in building permits in April indicates that builders are working down the inventory of permits pulled in the previous month and taking care not to get ahead of the market. Builders also continue facing difficulty in obtaining project financing, which will limit the pace of a housing recovery.”

Single-family housing starts surged 10.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 units in April, the strongest rate since August of 2008. Meanwhile, multifamily starts posted an 18.6% decline to a 79,000-unit rate, offsetting a big gain posted by that sector in the previous month.

Permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, declined 11.5% overall to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 606,000 units in April. This reflected a 10.7% decline to a 484,000-unit rate on the single-family side and a 14.7% decline to a 122,000-unit rate on the multifamily side.

Three out of four regions posted solid gains in new housing production in April. Combined single- and multifamily starts rose 23.9% in the Northeast, 16.7% in the Midwest and 7% in the South. The West registered a 13.3% decline.

Conversely, permit issuance was down in three out of four regions in April. The Northeast posted a 7.4% decline, the South registered a 14.3% decline and the West posted a 16% decline. Permit issuance remained unchanged from the previous month in the Midwest.

Valerie Fitzgerald specializes in luxury residential real estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, Santa Monica and Malibu. Valerie has more than 20 years of real estate experience and is known for her solid reputation in the West Los Angeles brokerage community. She’s also the author of the book published by Simon and Schuster Heart and Sold: How to Survive and Build a Recession-Proof Business.

Search Luxury Homes in Los Angeles at Valerie Fitzgerald Real Estate Listings

Housing market conditions varied across the country, and home values in most markets (106 of the 135 tracked by Zillow) continued to decline on a year-over-year basis.

Additionally, negative equity across the country remained high, with 23.3 percent of single-family homes with mortgages underwater, up from 21.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. Foreclosures reached a new peak in March, with more than one out of every 1,000 (0.11 percent) U.S. homes going into foreclosure during the month.

Home values in several large California markets – the Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Santa Barbara and Ventura MSAs – have stabilized significantly in the past year, marking what may be a bottom. Home values in those markets have risen significantly for at least the past 10 months, after values in all five markets reached a low point in April or May 2009. Although home values could fall again, it is more likely, given current conditions, that they will remain above their lowest level reached last year than fall below.

“It’s a very positive sign that several large markets have hit what appears to be a tentative bottom in home values,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “While this is no guarantee that home values there will not fall again, it is more likely than not that they will remain above their lowest point last year.

“However, we continue to have concerns about other factors playing out in markets across the country. We suspect that the homebuyer tax credits are, for the most part, stealing demand from later this summer, rather than creating new demand. Even with the tax credits in place during the first quarter, inventory levels were rising, and home values continued to decline at a steady clip, rather than steadying. Because of these factors, we believe national home values are more likely to reach bottom in the third quarter of 2010, rather than in the second quarter, as we had hoped. When we do get there, we expect the high rates of negative equity and foreclosures to keep national home value appreciation near zero for some time, possibly as long as five years.”

Foreclosure re-sales across the country remained high in March, making up more than one-fifth (22.2 percent) of all U.S. home sales. Foreclosure re-sales also made up the majority of sales in several MSAs, including the Merced, Calif. MSA (66.3 percent) the Madera, Calif. MSA (63 percent) and the Modesto, Calif. MSA (61.7 percent). Additionally, one-third (32.4 percent) of home sales nationwide sold for less than what the seller originally paid.

The full national report, in its interactive format, is available at www.zillow.com/local-info on Monday, May 10. Additionally, in most areas data is available at the state, metro, county, city, ZIP and neighborhood level.

Valerie Fitzgerald specializes in luxury residential real estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, Santa Monica and Malibu. Valerie has more than 20 years of real estate experience and is known for her solid reputation in the West Los Angeles brokerage community. She’s also the author of the book published by Simon and Schuster Heart and Sold: How to Survive and Build a Recession-Proof Business.

Check out Valerie Fitzgerald Beverly Hills Real Estate Listings

Unfortunately, a deeper look at the numbers from the National Association of Realtors reveals that inventory of for-sale homes also increased. Despite the higher number of sales, more homes were added to the market in March than were sold.

This figure shows the overall inventory of homes on the market. A second figure shows the balance between homes sold each month, and the net of homes added or withdrawn each month (so, if more homes are added to the market than are withdrawn or sold, the number will be positive – see below for more detailed methodology).

While the fact that March sales numbers are increasing is undoubtedly a positive sign, the time series shown in the second figure does make one at least ponder whether the market is currently capable of clearing itself of inventory without paying people to buy homes (i.e., the home buyer tax credit. Most of our traction in working down inventory levels came in the late summer/fall of last year when home sales were spurred by the threat that the tax credits were going to expire. Before and after that period, the addition of new inventory for sale usually outpaced sales, keeping inventory levels flat or rising.

This dynamic is being driven by the significant amount of “pent-up supply” in the market right now, that is, the pool of homeowners who have wanted to sell their homes in the past three years but, because of market conditions, either didn’t try or were unsuccessful. Our last estimates of the size of this group of homeowners were that 8% of homeowners indicated they were very likely to try to sell their homes in the next twelve months if they saw signs of improvement in their local markets. These sidelined sellers closely watch the market for signs of a possible turnaround and rush in if there’s a hint of good news.

We’ll very likely see another mini-frenzy in home sales as we approach June (when the current tax credits are set to expire), although I doubt the boost will be as large as we saw last fall. The ability of this purchased demand to push inventory levels down will be challenged by the flow of new listings into the inventory pool, something that happens each spring and summer.

It will be bad if we don’t make much headway in pushing down inventory levels through June, because we will undoubtedly see a reduction in home sales on a monthly basis in July and August (the “payback” of the tax credit seen from shifting demand that would have occurred in those months forward into the pre-July period). This mid-summer drop-off will likely increase inventory levels so, if we haven’t been successful in pushing them down before then, we’ll likely end up with more inventory on the market than we have now, even after what is likely to be a robust home buyer season in the spring and summer.

A few more details about how we arrived at the numbers in Figure 2: The formula used to arrive at the net number of homes added or withdrawn was: March inventory – February inventory + Number of homes sold in March. If no new homes were added or withdrawn from the inventory in a given month, then the difference between the inventory levels in March and February would equal the number of home sales in the current month and this net number would equal zero. Additionally, all statistics used in this analysis were from the National Association of Realtors March existing-home sales report.

Copyright© 2010 RISMedia

Valerie Fitzgerald specializes in luxury residential real estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, Santa Monica and Malibu. Valerie has more than 20 years of real estate experience and is known for her solid reputation in the West Los Angeles brokerage community. She’s also the author of the book published by Simon and Schuster Heart and Sold: How to Survive and Build a Recession-Proof Business.

Check out Valerie Fitzgerald Beverly Hills Real Estate Listings

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has signed legislation authored by state Sen. Lois Wolk, D-Davis, that brings much of state tax policy in line with federal policy while specifically providing greater tax relief to struggling California homeowners who have sold their homes as short sales or modified their mortgage loans.

Ms. Wolk’s district includes some of the nation’s hardest hit areas from the mortgage meltdown.

The bill will also assist companies that are developing new renewable energy projects in the state that are financed by economic stimulus grants received through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (Recovery Act).

“This legislation is a great example of what we can accomplish when we work together to solve problems that affect Californians,” says Mr. Schwarzenegger. “It is important that we continue to provide all possible assistance to homeowners who were negatively impacted by the mortgage crisis, and this bill will provide them with necessary mortgage debt relief and protect them from thousands of dollars in unfair taxes.”

SB 401 extends the law providing mortgage debt forgiveness to homeowners who have already lost their homes due to declining home prices and cannot afford to pay thousands of dollars in taxes because the mortgage company forgave the remainder of the loan. This means that Californians who have sold their homes as short sales are allowed to exclude from taxable income the amount that was still owed to the mortgage company. The legislation, which increases the amount of mortgage debt forgiveness available, also applies to homeowners who made loan modifications in 2009.

The bill also assists renewable energy companies that are currently establishing the financing to build their projects in California. By designating federal economic stimulus grants received through the Recovery Act for renewable energy projects are not treated as income for tax purposes, the legislation is expected to help companies move these projects forward and help their business thrive in California.

From Central Valley Business Times

Copyright© 2010 RISMedia

Valerie Fitzgerald specializes in luxury residential real estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, Santa Monica and Malibu. Valerie has more than 20 years of real estate experience and is known for her solid reputation in the West Los Angeles brokerage community. She’s also the author of the book published by Simon and Schuster Heart and Sold: How to Survive and Build a Recession-Proof Business.

Check out Valerie Fitzgerald Beverly Hills Real Estate Listings

More young people are living with their parents instead of moving out, postponing the creation of their own households. Meanwhile, more families are combining households for economic reasons, including the loss of a home due to foreclosure, said Gary Painter, associate professor in the School of Policy, Planning and Development at USC. “With such a significant drop in households nationwide, it is clear the most recent recession impacted individuals’ decisions to move out on their own and caused many Americans to join already formed households,” Painter said in a news release.

The decline in the number of households contributed to the excess supply of apartments and single-family homes on the market. “The housing and mortgage industries will feel the impact of this reduction in the number of households for years to come,” Painter said in the report, which was sponsored by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Research Institute for Housing America, a trust fund that aids research on mortgage markets and real estate finance. Also, the recession caused a fivefold increase in the rates of overcrowding, he said. A household that has more than one person per room indicates overcrowding.

While the analysis incorporates data only through 2008, Painter said the decline in household formation likely continued through 2009. “Clearly, given the depth of the downturn in 2009, and the ongoing weakness in the job market through the beginning of this year, this study gives no reason to expect that household formation has picked up at all,” he said.

There’s a strong tie between unemployment and household formation rates, Painter said. The national unemployment rate was 9.7% in March 2010, but the recession hit younger workers much harder. Workers between the ages of 16 to 24 peaked at a record high of 19.2% in September 2009, up from 11.8% in December 2007, according to a recent report from the Economic Policy Institute.

Household formation should begin a return to a more normal level by 2012, as unemployment rates decline, Painter said. But he said there isn’t a “demographic silver bullet” to solve the overhang of housing supply in many markets.

However, when conditions do improve, there could be more young adults becoming homeowners instead of moving into a rental unit, he said. “Young adults need not only a paycheck, but also a sense that they have sustainable employment before striking out on their own,” Painter said. “Typically, many new households are renters, but if young adults postpone moving out, some may have the ability to save for a down payment, causing them to skip the rental stage and move right to homeownership.”

The study, which analyzes data from the past 40 years, examines the historical impact of recessions and elevated unemployment rates on the formation of households. Findings include:

• The likelihood of a young adult forming an independent household falls up to 4% in a recession, depending on the person’s age and the severity of the changes in unemployment rates.
• The national homeownership rate has fallen to just above 67%, from above 69%. Renter household formation dropped even more than the formation of homeownership households.
• Native-born Americans showed a larger decline in household formation and a larger increase in overcrowding rates than immigrants.
• Parents with higher incomes are more likely to have young adults living with them instead of moving into the rental market. But children with parents who have higher financial wealth are more likely to form their own new rental households.

(c) 2010, MarketWatch.com Inc.

Copyright© 2010 RISMedia

Valerie Fitzgerald specializes in luxury residential real estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, Santa Monica and Malibu. Valerie has more than 20 years of real estate experience and is known for her solid reputation in the West Los Angeles brokerage community. She’s also the author of the book published by Simon and Schuster Heart and Sold: How to Survive and Build a Recession-Proof Business.

Check out Valerie Fitzgerald Beverly Hills Real Estate Listings

And despite a weak economy, Americans are expected to continue this love affair with the world outside their door—and perhaps spend a little more time in it as they plan to spend their summer vacations at home.

About 94% of residential landscape architects polled by the American Society of Landscape Architects earlier this year said that outdoor living spaces, including cooking and entertaining areas, would be popular in 2010. That said, improvements are expected to have few frills as homeowners stick to the basics in this cool economy.

“Homeowners want to create a sense of place for their family, friends, and neighbors to enjoy outside, but an uncertain economy means many will dial back some of the extra features we’ve seen in past years,” said Nancy Somerville, executive vice president for the group.

According to the survey results, some of the most popular features this year include: outdoor seating and dining areas, including benches and seat-walls or weatherized outdoor furniture, as well as fire pits and fireplaces, the classic outdoor grill and outdoor counter space. More lavish outdoor kitchen appliances, including refrigerators and sinks, are expected to be less popular, as are stereo systems and outdoor heaters. Survey results found a growing interest in low-maintenance landscapes and native plants. There’s also a continued resurgence of the home garden.

While consumers may be planting more as a way to have fresher produce or so they can know where their food is coming from, there’s also an economic driver: According to the National Gardening Association, a well-maintained food garden yields an average $500 return, considering a typical investment and the market price of produce.

A growing market
The interest in spending time outside is likely to beget more products designed for indoor/outdoor use in the near future, according to Rob Tannen and Mathieu Turpault, of Bresslergroup, a product-development firm.

One of the products they imagined: a tray container system that people could take into the garden to collect fruits and vegetables, adapt to fit the sink for cleaning the produce and slide into a refrigerator as you would a crisper drawer. Another concept was a grill with seating built around it, allowing cooks to entertain friends as they work.

Technology will likely play a larger role outdoors, too, Tannen said. It’s not far-fetched to imagine a shed with solar roofing panels that allow you to charge pieces of large lawn equipment, as easily as you might dock your Dustbuster inside the house. Or using iPod apps in the garden to learn how to best take care of a plant, he said.

Already, technology has entered some gardens. EasyBloom, a product that hit the market in 2008, is a sensor that you stick in the ground to collect information about the soil. You then connect it to a computer via a USB port, where collected information is analyzed to help determine what plants will thrive in that area. The tool also can diagnose problems with an existing plant. “People get bummed out when a plant is not doing well,” said Matt Glenn, chief executive of PlantSense, the company that sells EasyBloom. “If you have a rose bush, put the sensor next to the rose bush and the sensor will look at the world the way the rose does.” You’ll quickly learn, for example, if it isn’t getting enough sunlight or has been over-watered—which can be useful for the growing ranks of novice gardeners.

Adding appeal
When designing any outdoor area, it’s important to create a series of places that you can inhabit, whether it’s a covered space to entertain in or a vegetable bed to attend to, said Sarah Susanka, an architect and author of The Not So Big House series of books. Don’t forget your garden’s view from the inside either, she added.

“When I was designing my garden, I designed a view from my kitchen window,” so it could be enjoyed while standing at the kitchen sink, she said. “If you can see something that you find attractive day after day, you’re much more likely to sit out there,” she added.

And while many homeowners are making these outdoor improvements to their homes so they can enjoy them—especially in a real estate market where moving to another home is financially difficult for some families—a well-planned and maintained garden and outdoor area will serve an owner at the time of resale too.

“When you have a beautiful garden, someone will fall in love with it. In fact, it’s what they’re purchasing—more than the house even,” Susanka said.

Arbors, water features such as fountains, pergolas and decks are expected to be the most popular outdoor structures for homeowners this year, according to the architects group. And making an investment in a deck, for example, might set an existing home apart from a newly constructed one, said Edie Kello, director of marketing for Fiberon, a company that manufactures composite decking material.

“Fifteen to 20 years ago, most builders were putting on decks. A lot of construction builders these days aren’t building decks,” Kello said. “I think it’s a cost factor,” she said, adding that when builders were mass producing during the boom years—building as quickly and cost-effectively as possible—home buyers would often get only a stoop outside their door.

Copyright© 2010 RISMedia

Valerie Fitzgerald specializes in luxury residential real estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, Santa Monica and Malibu. Valerie has more than 20 years of real estate experience and is known for her solid reputation in the West Los Angeles brokerage community. She’s also the author of the book published by Simon and Schuster Heart and Sold: How to Survive and Build a Recession-Proof Business.

Check out Valerie Fitzgerald Beverly Hills Real Estate Listings

FROM REAL ESTATE MAGAZINE

Jobs, foreclosures, option-adjustable-rate mortgages, and interest rates are among the top trends that could dictate what will happen in California’s housing markets this year. Here’s what you need to know to make sense of how these trends could affect the real estate market.

1. Market Fundamentals
Three market fundamentals that turned positive in 2009 could be good indicators this year as well. First, home prices have fallen lower than replacement costs in many markets. This means a home can be bought for less than the cost to build it.

Second, home prices are “a lot more attractive” relative to rents than they have been in many years; and  third, inventory of for-sale homes has “dropped very dramatically,” says Richard K. Green, director of the USC Lusk School of Real Estate in Los Angeles. That suggests some markets have stabilized, although
homes priced at more than $1 million may be an exception. “There is still a lot of pain left to come” in that segment of the market, Green warns.

2. Jobs
“Painful” describes the employment picture and the outlook for wage hikes and job security. Moreover, housing may now be less sensitive to traditional jobmoving patterns, observes Stefan Swanepoel, a real estate trends expert, author, and speaker in Aliso Viejo. Home sales that involve corporate relocations or year-end job changes may be moribund until the employment situation improves.

3. Foreclosures
Jobs are an important factor in foreclosures, though “not everyone who has lost a job has lost their  house yet,” Swanepoel says. Homeowners who’ve lost a job may have had to live on lower wages or one income, or may have had to tap into their savings or retirement accounts to get by. “If they don’t get a decent job or a good job soon, I can see their houses still coming on the market in foreclosures or short sales,” he says.

Another trend to watch is that some homewners have dodged foreclosure even though they haven’t made their mortgage payments, according to Sean O’Toole, chief executive of ForeclosureRadar.com.
“We don’t have the political or societal will to foreclose on [that many] people, but nor do we have the will to bail out those homeowners who can’t afford their payments,” O’Toole says. That stalemate has slowed the pace of foreclosures, which may mean fewer opportunities for REALTORS® to list and  sell those homes, he suggests.

4. Lenders and Loans
Home loans are crucial to healthy housing markets, so REALTORS® need to keep an eye on national lenders that originate loans locally, Swanepoel suggests. “As they digest the companies they’ve acquired and find out what loans they have, what loans they are servicing, and what their exposure in certain markets is, they might change their rules and terms and conditions,” he warns. Tougher requirements for loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) could have an effect on housing as well.

5. Interest Rates
Interest rates could turn out to be the ultimate wild card. How long the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low is an unanswerable question on which hangs the future of housing. The Fed’s ability to maintain low interest rates is “the greatest risk to the real estate industry right now,” says O’Toole. “If interest rates go to 8 percent, this market is over.”

6. Option-ARM Recasts
Low interest rates have taken the sting out of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), but the payment option variety is still watch-worthy because a recast to make up negative amortization can result in an enormous payment shock, Green notes. “You could set up a fairly simple example where interest rates don’t go up at all, but the payment doubles,” he says. “If that loan was originated with a 90 percent loan-to-value ratio and you are piling up principal, you could be deeply underwater and unable to make the payment.” Aggressive loan modification programs have blunted the expected blow from option-ARM recasts, but many homeowners still owe more than their home is worth and 30-day delinquencies
have continued to climb, O’Toole observes.

That suggests more homeowners may throw in the towel. “Strategic walk-aways from negative equity and/or due to job loss are going to be a bigger issue because modification programs and low interest rates likely have taken up the slack from the reset/recast issue,” he explains.

The Valerie Fitzgerald Group specializes in luxury residential real estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, Santa Monica and Malibu. Valerie has more than 20 years of real estate experience and is known for her solid reputation in the West Los Angeles brokerage community. She’s also the author of the book published by Simon and Schuster Heart and Sold: How to Survive and Build a Recession-Proof Business. Buy it here.

Subscribe to this blog: Valerie Fitzgerald Group Blog

Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/ValreFitzgerald

Follow me on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/ValerieFitzgeraldRealEstate